A Thoughtful Snapshot of the Market Today
Year over year, home sale prices across the Phoenix metro area have softened—generally down about 4%. It’s also telling that over 30% of active listings have dropped their prices in the past month. These are helpful market signals—but take heart: your home is not a statistic and isn’t bound by these broad trends. Each property, neighborhood, and transaction carries its own story.
Let’s turn to the attached graph (via Cromford Associates), which breaks down the current Market Index across individual cities in the Valley. Here’s how to read it:
- Under 90 = Buyers’ Market
- Over 110 = Sellers’ Market
On August 21, 2025, Paradise Valley topped the index at 196.9, with Fountain Hills at 137.7, followed by Cave Creek (123.2), and Chandler (121.5). These are strong sellers’ markets. Meanwhile, sat at 80.0, Peoria and Tempe (down 7%) edge toward buyers’ market territory. Every community has its own rhythm—and treating the Valley as one big, monolithic market would be a mistake.
That’s why real estate demands hyper-local stewardship—understanding each city, town, and even neighborhood is essential. Scottsdale, Gilbert, Mesa—even down to specific subdivisions—deserve individual scrutiny and strategy.
Your property’s performance depends on this granular understanding.
What Could Happen in the Next 12 Months (Spoiler: No One Really Knows)
We have no ideal exactly what is going to happen past 3 months in the real estate market. Anyone who claims they know is not someone you should take advice from. With fast-moving information, volatility, and global economic crosswinds, almost anything is up in the air. That said, planning wisely is our stewardship—and here’s what we’re preparing for:
We believe higher transaction volume in Arizona real estate is possible over the next 12 months. Here’s the logic behind our forecast:
- The Trump administration’s mandate includes tackling the national debt. One path to doing that is generating revenue—but another is refinancing the national debt at lower rates to reduce interest costs. President Trump has openly called for interest rates around 1–2%, noting that refinancing at such levels would relieve the government’s annual burden.FOX 10 Phoenix+1
- Jerome Powell is firmly resisting rate cuts—for now. Despite pressure, he’s focusing on inflation control and the Fed’s independence.AP News+7MoneyWeek+7The Washington Post+7
- But Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and Trump could appoint a successor more aligned with his rate-cut goals.Gustan Cho Associates Mortgage Brokers+15MoneyWeek+15AP News+15
- Signs of fiscal dominance are growing. The administration’s push to shape Fed policy reflects concern about debt service and borrowing costs.New York Post+11Reuters+11Financial Times+11
If the Fed leadership changes, policy could shift. Lower interest rates—even modestly—typically spur refinance activity and buying power, driving real estate transactions upward. That’s why we’re positioning our firm now by:
- Streamlining systems for efficiency
- Integrating more advanced technology
- Hiring in preparation for transaction surges
Once again, we can’t predict the future with certainty—but we can prepare with wisdom and readiness.
What This Means for You
Thinking about buying? Here’s how to lean into these potential shifts:
- Consider acting now, before demand ramps up and bidding wars push prices higher.
- If mortgage rates fall later, you can refinance—so don’t delay your purchase on the hope of lower rates alone.
- As always, only buy what you can comfortably afford, but don’t let fear of rate changes trip your timing.
In summary:
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Prices are down roughly 4% year over year across the Valley.
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Over 30% of sellers have trimmed their prices in the last month.
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Markets are highly localized—buyers’ vs. sellers’ markets vary by city.
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We’re bracing for higher transaction volume if and when rates come down.
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Strategic buyers who act now may gain both homeownership and future refinance flexibility.
